The Panel History
The Panel started over a year ago as a pub conversation and subsequent WhatsApp group in which us four guys were convinced that with a meticulous, cautious mindset, we could exploit certain betting markets. Our aim was to ‘beat the bookies’, in our own Leicester fairytale, where a statistical approach is pivotal to its success…
We are living in a world in which so much data is generated, yet it is hard to pull together and digest. This is no different in the football environment with tons of hard stats, opinions and supporting data being generated and published on the web. So we began by analysing different markets and testing what factors (data sources) influenced different markets. Whether it was purely league position, league form, home form, away form or the more complex data factors such as player injuries, weather conditions or media sentiment – we used anything we could get our hands on to make informed decisions on a bet.
We have had our success stories, and our failures, but all was used to build knowledge of what works and what doesn’t.
With full time jobs to contend with, pulling this kind of information in a manual way was difficult to fit in. So we took one of our most successful markets, and used that as a test case for winning against the betting sites…
In-play betting became a favourite way of using statistics to make a betting decisions. It is such a fast changing situation that you can exploit generous odds on particular markets on particular games.
We started to use a variety of statistics to create a betting score against every 0-0 at half time as to how likely there is to be a goal. The key was automation. Our automated script pulls together all the sources of information we need to calculate the score and post an email notification when a game to bet on is available. Based on that algorithm, we tracked every game that finished 0-0 at half time and published games where the betting score was greater than 50%, the results were fascinating.
Across 2500+ games, from 40+ countries, we were experiencing a win rate of just over 78%. Now, when you can get odds of 1/2 – 1/3 (If betting between 45mins-60mins and avoiding teams like Barca!), with a 78% chance of winning – with discipline, you can beat the bookies over a sustained period.