And the results are in!

And the results are in!

So now we have some tasty pre-game tips available for the Member Zone, how should we be treating these opposed to inplay? I’m looking at the results market in this post.

Well I’d argue the pre-game results market is still the biggest in football so of course the amount of research put in by bookies is extremely high. In fact it’s probably the richest historical dataset they have therefore it’s no surprise finding value for favourites can be an almighty struggle.

A tempting approach spurred on by the media and one which actually is in keeping with our statistical analysis is to lump on the favourite with the biggest statistical advantage over the other. If you think inplay was an issue with odds, you wait until Real Vs Eibar after a 100 game unbeaten run at home. Not to mention the amount of punter money that also goes on strong favourites forcing the bookie to offer even less than they might actually want to.

Due to this, where the kings of Europe are often cropping up over a weekend we’ll be doing some accas to get some value out of them, getting creative with multiple markets such as goals or actually omitting them from our tweeted tips if the value isn’t there.

As well as heavy favourites really requiring multiple bets at once, when we track how some of the expected favourites have got on in the lower leagues, there are some real surprises already this season. We saw Nimes having won the last 3 losing 5-1 to Niort who had just lost their last 4 in horrible ligue 2 and Macclesfield the other day going down comprehensively despite being top and unbeaten in 6 in Conference. So that shows when it comes to hunting around lower leagues to find a bit of value, it’s usually justified why it’s being offered.

So I wouldn’t recommend consistently lumping on big for any matchups with a BetScore at the threshold you set as football has already proved again this season it can cause a surprise and bookies are fully aware a slip up is more likely than it seems. If you’re looking to stake your entire pot you’ll come unstuck relatively quickly.

We’re also considering additional factors to be applied in the results sphere like derbies and head 2 heads which can be a nice way of highlighting a closer match may be on the cards despite an apparent gap in league position and form. There’s plenty of good research out there to try and tap into the money going on less favoured teams such as that by Joseph Buchdahl @12Xpert. He sheds light on Pinnacle odds fluctuations as the match approaches and it can help​ leave those games alone which have some unusual activity. We’d like to think these extra considerations will hone the performance of theresults predictions over this season especially when aided by a bit of machine learning to fine tune. It’s also a valuable resource to pick up on weaker teams say if key players will be missing through injuries or suspensions and insider money has gone on the underdog. Although i’d always redo the lineup research just before kick off so go on sites like physioroom.com especially with cup matches when squad rotation is likely.

Of course at the moment our algorithm highlights where gulfs in the stats are apparent predicting home or away wins. But when we look a bit closer at the BetScores on offer, there might be some other markets worth looking at where the gap between the teams is narrower. Maybe there’s an opportunity to associate trends like when teams are both in similar form and position they’re more likely to end up a stalemate.

I’ve personally tracked the performance of some of the matches where the difference in BetScores is 10% or under and we’ve had a hell of a lot ending up as draws in English lower leagues so far this season. In addition when the form of both is poor there’s rarely been more than 1 goal scored by each side in the result which may offer some links to the unders goal market. So we’re looking forward to testing the hypothesis to tap into that lucrative draw market when the conditions are right.

For now an option in the Member Zone results tips is to accept the fact that you will experience some losses with huge accas so I’d recommend to pick wisely from the statistical hit list we provide. You’ll see each Panel member usually has just a couple of picks from the top 10 list and back it up with some of your own individual research just before k/o. Then one day when the algorithm deems the case is strong enough to predict draws, I’d be tempted to place more independent bets on each result (win, draw or loss) rather than getting caught up in that Hollywood acca cycle, but maybe that’s just me.

Mike@gamblingpanel